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From Considerations to Probabilities

The previous post started forecasting the UK hospital peak (based on information through Dec. 21, 2021). We generated several considerations and ultimately focused on the Omicron doubling time, the peak number of cases, the current number of Omicron cases, and the seasonality. In addition to a reference class forecast based



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From Considerations to Probabilities

https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/from-considerations-to-probabilities

The previous post started forecasting the UK hospital peak (based on information through Dec. 21, 2021). We generated several considerations and ultimately focused on the Omicron doubling time, the peak number of cases, the current number of Omicron cases, and the seasonality. In addition to a reference class forecast based



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https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/from-considerations-to-probabilities

From Considerations to Probabilities

The previous post started forecasting the UK hospital peak (based on information through Dec. 21, 2021). We generated several considerations and ultimately focused on the Omicron doubling time, the peak number of cases, the current number of Omicron cases, and the seasonality. In addition to a reference class forecast based

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