#291 Henrik Zeberg: Everything Bubble Bust Coming After Final Blow-Off Top

Listen to this episode from The Julia La Roche Show on Spotify. Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR2010:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg 1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic48:43 Housing affordability 51:01 Central bank hubris 53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful