Ben Kizemchuk: Bank reserves are now scarce. Expect high volatility

Listen to this episode from Less Noise, More Signal on Spotify. In this conversation, Pascal Huegli and Ben Kizemchuk discuss the current state of equity markets, focusing on volatility, the implications of the VIX, and the behavior of 'garbage stocks.' They explore the financial plumbing of the U.S. system, including liquidity issues and the impact of treasury issuance. The discussion also touches on inflation trends, defensive investment strategies, and the evolution of market valuation towards a flow-based model. Huegli emphasizes the importance of understanding these dynamics in the context of potential market declines and the future of economic policy.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Context01:50 Why bearish in the short-term06:08 Understanding Volatility and the VIX13:32 Garbage Stocks and Shorts19:19 IWM Breakout or Deleveraging25:07 Financial System Plumbing and Tax Drain26:07 Treasury Bill Issuance and TGA Dynamics28:47 Reserves and Banking System Stress31:08 NFDI Lending and Market Implications33:52 Standing Repo Facility and Bank Liquidity36:44 Why is Bitcoin up41:31 How to manage risk right now44:28 Inflation is a real risk47:43 Liquidity Drawdowns under 4Fs Framework53:44 The Evolution of Price and Valuation57:34 From Narratives to Flows in Valuation01:01:44 The Fragility of Flow-Based Systems01:04:01 Investment Strategies in a Flow-Dominated Market01:07:28 GDP Targeting with Reserves01:13:34 Stablecoins as tokenized ReservesCheck out our sponsors👇https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/lnmsBlockware is a Mining-as-a-Service platform that makes it easy for anyone to start mining Bitcoin straight from home! Get $100 off your first miner with discount code LNMS🔥https://bitbox.swiss/lnmsBitBox is the best in class hardware wallet, I personally trust and use! Get 5% off your first order with discount code LNMS🔥Follow Ben Kizemchuk:https://x.com/BenKizemchukFollow me👇Twitter - https://x.com/pahuegNostr - npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8Get the latest in finance, crypto, and Bitcoin. Our newsletter provides clear, concise and actionable insights. Don't miss out—check out our Newsletter and subscribe today! 🔥⬇️https://substack.com/@lessnoisemoresignalBitcoin Book 👇Order from Europe: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013Global: https://www.amazon.com/-/de/dp/B0F9W8Y283Thank you for subscribing to our channel! We’re excited to have you with us!#equitymarkets, #volatility, #VIX, #deleveraging, #liquidity, #inflation, #stablecoins, #marketdynamics, #investmentstrategies, #financialplumbing