Hank K on Foreign Policy Expertise

Thanks, Dan. I’m not saying inputs have no relationship to outcomes. They most certainly do. My point is that the goal should be to make the best possible decisions, regardless of how they turn out. Imagine it’s the last inning of the World Series and you’re down to your final out. You send up your statistically best batter — the objectively correct decision — even if he strikes out. That’s what I mean by separating outcomes from inputs. You still have to understand what you’re doing and why. In fact, the outcome can be very helpful in helping to assess the quality of your underlying assumptions.