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https://hobostew.substack.com/p/doge-and-the-perils-of-an-ai-driven/comment/106960548

Chris on HoboStack

Inspired by this thoughtful piece, I chatted with my new favorite AI, ChatGPT o3-mini for a little while. I concluded from this conversation that our current leadership would have benefited from even more conversation with AIs. Specifically, AIs could have explained: * How tariffs contribute to inflation, * Their recommendation of using a balanced approach including "investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms" to reduce US trade deficits with other countries, and * The importance of continually challenging one's assumptions for both fundamental science as well as for economic policy. Below is a somewhat longer summary of my conversation with ChatGPT. Tariffs and Trade: We discussed how tariffs can raise costs and contribute to inflation by making imported goods more expensive, potentially leading to cost-push effects and supply chain disruptions. Trade Deficit Reduction Strategies: A range of policy options were explored—from boosting domestic competitiveness and investing in innovation and infrastructure to revising trade agreements and adjusting fiscal policies—to help reduce U.S. trade deficits. Policy Recommendations for Unified Control: If unified control of the White House, House, and Senate were achieved, a balanced approach would include investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms. The Scientific Process and Challenging Assumptions: We reviewed how the scientific method involves testing, falsification, and the continual reexamination of assumptions, which is crucial for improving theories and models. Application to Economics: The importance of challenging assumptions was extended to economics, noting that empirical testing, data analysis, and adaptive policymaking help refine economic models and improve economic policy in the face of real-world complexities and uncertainties. For the full conversation, please go to https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CfmNku6EJIGpSXq5YldcW078jbLjKD9yZpHE6eGQpZs/edit?usp=sharing



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Chris on HoboStack

https://hobostew.substack.com/p/doge-and-the-perils-of-an-ai-driven/comment/106960548

Inspired by this thoughtful piece, I chatted with my new favorite AI, ChatGPT o3-mini for a little while. I concluded from this conversation that our current leadership would have benefited from even more conversation with AIs. Specifically, AIs could have explained: * How tariffs contribute to inflation, * Their recommendation of using a balanced approach including "investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms" to reduce US trade deficits with other countries, and * The importance of continually challenging one's assumptions for both fundamental science as well as for economic policy. Below is a somewhat longer summary of my conversation with ChatGPT. Tariffs and Trade: We discussed how tariffs can raise costs and contribute to inflation by making imported goods more expensive, potentially leading to cost-push effects and supply chain disruptions. Trade Deficit Reduction Strategies: A range of policy options were explored—from boosting domestic competitiveness and investing in innovation and infrastructure to revising trade agreements and adjusting fiscal policies—to help reduce U.S. trade deficits. Policy Recommendations for Unified Control: If unified control of the White House, House, and Senate were achieved, a balanced approach would include investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms. The Scientific Process and Challenging Assumptions: We reviewed how the scientific method involves testing, falsification, and the continual reexamination of assumptions, which is crucial for improving theories and models. Application to Economics: The importance of challenging assumptions was extended to economics, noting that empirical testing, data analysis, and adaptive policymaking help refine economic models and improve economic policy in the face of real-world complexities and uncertainties. For the full conversation, please go to https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CfmNku6EJIGpSXq5YldcW078jbLjKD9yZpHE6eGQpZs/edit?usp=sharing



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https://hobostew.substack.com/p/doge-and-the-perils-of-an-ai-driven/comment/106960548

Chris on HoboStack

Inspired by this thoughtful piece, I chatted with my new favorite AI, ChatGPT o3-mini for a little while. I concluded from this conversation that our current leadership would have benefited from even more conversation with AIs. Specifically, AIs could have explained: * How tariffs contribute to inflation, * Their recommendation of using a balanced approach including "investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms" to reduce US trade deficits with other countries, and * The importance of continually challenging one's assumptions for both fundamental science as well as for economic policy. Below is a somewhat longer summary of my conversation with ChatGPT. Tariffs and Trade: We discussed how tariffs can raise costs and contribute to inflation by making imported goods more expensive, potentially leading to cost-push effects and supply chain disruptions. Trade Deficit Reduction Strategies: A range of policy options were explored—from boosting domestic competitiveness and investing in innovation and infrastructure to revising trade agreements and adjusting fiscal policies—to help reduce U.S. trade deficits. Policy Recommendations for Unified Control: If unified control of the White House, House, and Senate were achieved, a balanced approach would include investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms. The Scientific Process and Challenging Assumptions: We reviewed how the scientific method involves testing, falsification, and the continual reexamination of assumptions, which is crucial for improving theories and models. Application to Economics: The importance of challenging assumptions was extended to economics, noting that empirical testing, data analysis, and adaptive policymaking help refine economic models and improve economic policy in the face of real-world complexities and uncertainties. For the full conversation, please go to https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CfmNku6EJIGpSXq5YldcW078jbLjKD9yZpHE6eGQpZs/edit?usp=sharing

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      Inspired by this thoughtful piece, I chatted with my new favorite AI, ChatGPT o3-mini for a little while. I concluded from this conversation that our current leadership would have benefited from even more conversation with AIs. Specifically, AIs could have explained: * How tariffs contribute to inflation, * Their recommendation of using a balanced approach including "investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms" to reduce US trade deficits with other countries, and * The importance of continually challenging one's assumptions for both fundamental science as well as for economic policy. Below is a somewhat longer summary of my conversation with ChatGPT. Tariffs and Trade: We discussed how tariffs can raise costs and contribute to inflation by making imported goods more expensive, potentially leading to cost-push effects and supply chain disruptions. Trade Deficit Reduction Strategies: A range of policy options were explored—from boosting domestic competitiveness and investing in innovation and infrastructure to revising trade agreements and adjusting fiscal policies—to help reduce U.S. trade deficits. Policy Recommendations for Unified Control: If unified control of the White House, House, and Senate were achieved, a balanced approach would include investments in R&D, workforce development, modernized infrastructure, smart trade agreement negotiations, targeted tariffs, and regulatory reforms. The Scientific Process and Challenging Assumptions: We reviewed how the scientific method involves testing, falsification, and the continual reexamination of assumptions, which is crucial for improving theories and models. Application to Economics: The importance of challenging assumptions was extended to economics, noting that empirical testing, data analysis, and adaptive policymaking help refine economic models and improve economic policy in the face of real-world complexities and uncertainties. For the full conversation, please go to https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CfmNku6EJIGpSXq5YldcW078jbLjKD9yZpHE6eGQpZs/edit?usp=sharing
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